In March 2020, airlines were facing a potentially existential crisis. Would there even be an airline industry on the other side? And so with virtually no revenue coming in, airlines moved to cut costs as much as possible, including offering buyouts and early retirements to pilots. Thousands of them took the offer.

By the time it became clear travel demand was coming back much quicker than expected, airlines were caught flat-footed. You can’t hire pilots quickly to meet rebounding demand. It’s not an entry-level job. And so, since mid-2021 and accelerating this spring, there’s been an industrywide pilot shortage.

One way to view it: since March 2022, flight demand has been down 5-10% compared to 2019 levels, but flight capacity has been down 15-20%. What’s the bottleneck on capacity? Not enough pilots.

All of the above is especially true for flights from or to smaller airports, which have seen the largest cuts due to the pilot shortage. (Airlines generally make more money from a pilot flying 200 passengers to Dallas than 50 passengers to Abilene.)

While the pilot shortage isn’t causing fares to double, it is pushing flight prices up higher than we’d otherwise see. Easing the shortage over the next 12 months will benefit cheap flight lovers everywhere.

According to The Air Current, the shortage currently stands between 5,500 and 8,000 pilots. Plugging a hole that deep takes time—not just hiring, but the required classroom training, scant available time in flight simulators, the 1,500 hours of federally mandated cockpit time, and so on.

The good news is that pilot training centers are full. That’s thanks to major pay increases (in some cases nearly doubling pay for smaller regional pilots) and airline investments in new pilot academies. Delta’s CEO intimated it’s on pace to reach 100% capacity by next summer, and I suspect we’ll see similar figures from other airlines as well.

While the problem won’t be fixed in a matter of weeks, I’d be surprised if we’re chatting in November 2023 and “pilot shortage” is still an ongoing buzzword.

Recently, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg proposed new regulations that would 1) require airlines to give cash refunds if there’s a significant delay and you no longer want to travel, and 2) require airlines to provide non-expiring vouchers for pandemic-related disruptions.

The proposed rule is currently in its required 90-day public comment period, but it closes soon! You can make your voice heard by leaving a comment.